Betting analytics glossary
What is a moneyline bet?
The simplest bet in sports betting. Pick who wins, collect if they do. No margin of victory, no spread to cover, no total to beat. The first bet type every US sportsbook user places — and the building block for every parlay.
TL;DR
- Pick who wins outright. No spread, no total, no props.
- American odds: +150 = underdog ($100 stake wins $150). −140 = favorite (must stake $140 to win $100).
- Break-even at −110 is 52.4%.That’s what the vig costs you.
- Cleanest bet type for big underdogsand pick’em matchups where the spread barely applies.
- The building block for parlays — most parlay legs are moneylines.
The short definition
A moneyline bet picks the outright winner of a game. If your team wins by 1 or by 40, you win the bet. If they lose or the game ties (in a sport that allows ties, like soccer), you lose. That’s it — no margin, no total, no covering a spread.
Every US sportsbook lists moneyline as one of the first three options on any game screen, alongside the point spread and the over/under total. It’s the entry-level bet and it stays useful all the way up to sharp betting because it removes one variable (margin) from the analysis.
Reading American odds
US sportsbooks price moneylines in American format. The sign tells you favorite or underdog; the number tells you the math.
- Positive (+) = underdog. The number is the profit on a $100 stake. +150 means a $100 stake wins $150 (total returned $250). +400means a $100 stake wins $400 (total returned $500). Bigger positive = bigger underdog.
- Negative (−) = favorite. The number is the stake needed to win $100. −140 means you have to stake $140 to win $100 (total returned $240). −300 means you have to stake $300 to win $100. Bigger negative = heavier favorite.
- A game priced −110 / −110(both sides at −110) is the closest thing to a coin-flip pricing — sportsbooks call this “pick’em.”
Payout math
Two formulas cover everything:
Positive: profit = stake × (odds ÷ 100)
Negative: profit = stake × (100 ÷ |odds|)Or convert to decimal odds and use one formula. Positive American: decimal = (odds ÷ 100) + 1. Negative American: decimal = (100 ÷ |odds|) + 1. Then profit = stake × (decimal − 1).
Worked example
You take the Chiefs on the moneyline at −165 (a moderate favorite). Stake: $100.
Profit = 100 × (100 ÷ 165) = $60.61If the Chiefs win by any margin, you get back $160.61 (your $100 stake + $60.61 profit).
Same game, other side: opponent at +140. Stake $100.
Profit = 100 × (140 ÷ 100) = $140If the opponent wins, you get back $240 ($100 stake + $140 profit).
Break-even win rate
To know if a moneyline is a good bet you need to know how often it must hit just to break even. Convert to decimal odds and divide 1 by the decimal:
- −110 (1.909 decimal) → break-even 52.4%
- −140 (1.714 decimal) → break-even 58.3%
- −200 (1.500 decimal) → break-even 66.7%
- +100 (2.000 decimal) → break-even 50.0%
- +150 (2.500 decimal) → break-even 40.0%
- +300 (4.000 decimal) → break-even 25.0%
The gap between what the book prices and what fair pricing would be is the vig — usually ~4-5% on standard moneylines. See deviggingfor how to strip vig out of a sharp market’s price to get a cleaner true-probability estimate.
When to take a moneyline over a spread
- Big underdog — a +350 moneyline pays 3.5× stake, while covering a +10 spread pays roughly the same as coverage requires losing by fewer than 10. The pure upset play is usually cleaner on the moneyline.
- Pick’em game — when the spread is −1 or +1, the moneyline and spread are essentially the same bet. Take whichever price is better after devig.
- Sports without a natural spread— tennis, boxing, MMA, and most soccer betting outside 1X2 lean on moneylines because the games don’t have a margin-of-victory scoreboard to spread against.
- When you have a strong “team X wins” read but no confidence in the margin. The moneyline pays you for the read you actually have.
Related terms
Frequently asked questions
What is a moneyline bet in sports betting?
A moneyline bet is a wager on which team or player wins a game outright — no point spread, no total, no props. If the team you back wins by any margin, you win. If they lose or the game ties (in a sport that allows ties), you lose.
What does +150 mean on a moneyline?
+150 is an American-odds price for an underdog. A $100 stake wins $150 profit if the pick hits ($250 total returned). In decimal odds that's 2.50. Positive numbers always mean underdog; the further above zero, the bigger the underdog.
What does −110 mean on a moneyline?
−110 is an American-odds price for a slight favorite. You have to stake $110 to win $100 profit ($210 total returned). In decimal odds that's 1.909. Negative numbers always mean favorite; the further below zero (more negative), the heavier the favorite.
How do you calculate a moneyline payout?
For positive American odds (+150), profit = stake × (odds / 100). $50 × (150 / 100) = $75 profit. For negative American odds (−140), profit = stake × (100 / abs(odds)). $50 × (100 / 140) = $35.71 profit. Or convert to decimal odds first: positive → (odds/100)+1; negative → (100/abs(odds))+1. Then profit = stake × (decimal − 1).
Moneyline vs point spread — which is better?
Depends on the game. Moneyline pays less on favorites (you need to stake more to win the same), but you don't have to worry about margin of victory. Spreads give you more balanced pricing but you need your team to cover, not just win. Moneylines are cleaner for big underdogs and pick'em matchups where the spread is close to zero anyway.
What is the break-even win rate for a moneyline?
Convert to decimal odds and divide 1 by the decimal. At −110 (1.909 decimal), break-even is 1 / 1.909 = 52.4% — you need to win 52.4% of your bets to break even after vig. At +150 (2.50), break-even is 1 / 2.50 = 40%. At −250 (1.40), break-even is 71.4%.
Why do moneylines have vig if it's a straight winner bet?
The book prices both sides slightly worse than fair to guarantee a margin. On a true 50/50 game, fair odds are +100 / +100 (2.00 decimal each). A book prices it −110 / −110 instead — that ~4.5% gap between fair and priced odds is the vig. You pay it whether you take the favorite or the underdog. It's why beating the moneyline long-term requires a real edge, not just picking winners.